Overread = Overreach

Newly elected presidents like to claim a mandate. Most of the time they don't really have one - or have only a very limited one. Trump certainly doesn't have one. True, his party controls all three branches of the federal government, which certainly counts for a lot. But he won only a plurality of the popular vote, and the difference between his vote and Harris's vote - while decisive - was very modest. To over-read the result as a real "mandate" (a mistake other past presidents have made), to over-read his "mandate," is the royal road to overreach.

The most famous recent example in this 21st century was George W. Bush in 2005. Reelected in 2004 as a National security president, he over-read the election results as a "mandate" and - in a dramatic display of overreach - interpreted his "mandate" as an opportunity to privatize social security.

I think we can be safely confident that Trump will not try to privatize social security. The changes Trump is most likely to care to implement relate to immigration and tariffs. I would expect a flurry of executive orders in the first few days of the new Administration on these issues. 

It is reasonable to suppose that those who voted for Trump will be generally supportive on these issues. On the other hand, if it is true that a lot of people voted for Trump because of the price of eggs, those voters may not be so happy with the consequences at the check-out counter of mass deportations and tariffs, both of which will likely result in higher prices. And we can even more safely assume that a lot of those voters most certainly did not vote for antivax-induced outbreaks of measles and polio. 

How much of that will happen obviously cannot be predicted in advance. What can be predicted is that the Trump Administration will pursue at least some policies that will likely adversely affect a lot of Americans - among them some of Trump's voters. How adversely, of course, remains to be seen. But the likelihood of overreach is high. And the consequences of overreach, come the midterms, is another familiar feature of American politics.