The Electors Vote

Tomorrow is presidential election day in the United States. Yes, tomorrow! It is the day when, according the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.

For philosophical reasons, rooted in classical city-state and Roman republican experience as well as classical political theory, the Founders feared direct democracy, and were understandably reluctant to countenance direct popular election of the president. Direct democracy was anyway impossible in a large continental republic, where any form of constitutional government was obviously going to have to be a representative system. The question was how much of a "mixed constitution" it should be, and how extensive should the democratic component be (which in the original constitution was confined to the House of Representatives). Philosophical issues aside, it appeared excessively challenging to imagine how citizens spread out over such an extensive territory would be able to know whom to vote for in a presidential election, given the communications and travel technology of the 18th century.

The founding philosophy was quickly undercut by the very unexpected but rapid development of political parties, which immediately nationalized American politics and presidential elections. Once political parties were structuring the vote and once more and more states used popular election to choose presidential electors, the founders' original concerns became more or less moot. The Washingtonian king-like, above-party model of President quickly evolved into the President as party leader. As a result, what the U.S. has had since the early 19th century has, in effect, been a de facto popular election of presidents, but with the electoral outcome distorted by the defective representation of the popular vote by two factors - the overrepresentation of smaller states in the electoral college and the almost universally used winner-take-all system of allocating electors.

For a long time, I appreciated the Electoral College for its stabilizing effect in maintaining a two-party system. (Single-member congressional districts and our "first-past-the-post" electoral system are also major factors in producing and maintaining a two-party system.) It is not so much that I think a two-party system is better than a multi-party one. In fact, I would probably prefer the latter - if we enjoyed a parliamentary system, which I would also prefer. But, in our presidential system (the ultimate "single-member district" writ large), it is hard to imagine how a multi-party system would work. In a parliamentary system, multiple interest-based parties compete and then may form coalitions after the election in order to govern. In our particular version of a two-party system, multiple interests form coalitions before the election in order to compete as two broadly coalitional parties. Yet, a multi-party electoral universe would be one of the more likely consequences of moving to a straight popular vote for president. How that would play out in practice is for now anyone's guess.

That said, the deficiencies in our electoral college process and the manifest harm it has done twice in this century in putting the popular loser in the White House, combined with the way the electoral college distorts our political campaigns, effectively confining them to a small number of states, these considerations have long since convinced me (and many others) that the electoral college no longer serves us well and instead ought to be confined to the discarded rubble of our constitutional history.

Of course, there isn't the slightest chance in the current political climate that the constitution could be amended to eliminate the electoral college.

And so the electors will meet tomorrow as the constitution and the law prescribe. On January 6, the votes will be counted. No surprises expected!

Image: The number of electoral votes, out of 538, allocated to each state and the District of Columbia for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections, based on the 2020 census.